At last, a president who makes sense

This is so long in the coming. President Obama’s speech on responsibly ending the war in Iraq hit a raw nerve. Of course, actions speak louder than words and it remains to be seen in the coming months and years how it will all unfold. But the unambiguous and direct way which President Obama has outlined his intentions in the Middle East has again won my respect. Firstly, he emphasized handling Iraq over to its own people.

We have acted with careful consideration of events on the ground; with respect for the security agreements between the United States and Iraq; and with a critical recognition that the long-term solution in Iraq must be political – not military. Because the most important decisions that have to be made about Iraq’s future must now be made by Iraqis.

So to the Iraqi people, let me be clear about America’s intentions. The United States pursues no claim on your territory or your resources. We respect your sovereignty and the tremendous sacrifices you have made for your country. We seek a full transition to Iraqi responsibility for the security of your country. And going forward, we can build a lasting relationship founded upon mutual interests and mutual respect as Iraq takes its rightful place in the community of nations.

I don’t think Bush has ever said this as clearly as President Obama. Under Bush and his neocons, I don’t think Iraq sovereignty is even under their consideration. Their objectives are first and foremost exert control and influence over Iraq so they can exert control over the Middle-East in case it turns anti-American. Iraq sovereignty is secondary to American grand strategy.

The starting point for our policies must always be the safety of the American people. I know that you – the men and women of the finest fighting force in the history of the world – can meet any challenge, and defeat any foe. And as long as I am your Commander-in-Chief, I promise you that I will only send you into harm’s way when it is absolutely necessary, and provide you with the equipment and support you need to get the job done. That is the most important lesson of all – for the consequences of war are dire, the sacrifices immeasurable.

This is a repudiation of the neocon ideology of making maximum use of military power to exert influence rather than a tool of the very last resort.

We also know that service does not end with the person wearing the uniform. In her visits with military families across the country, my wife Michelle has learned firsthand about the unique burden that your families endure every day. I want you to know this: military families are a top priority for Michelle and me, and they will be a top priority for my administration. We’ll raise military pay, and continue providing quality child-care, job-training for spouses, and expanded counseling and outreach to families that have known the separation and stress of war. We will also heed the lesson of history – that those who fight in battle can form the backbone of our middle class – by implementing a 21st century GI Bill to help our veterans live their dreams.

His gratitude and promise to the men and women in uniform, that they’ll not be used and then forgotten.

There are many lessons to be learned from what we’ve experienced. We have learned that America must go to war with clearly defined goals, which is why I’ve ordered a review of our policy in Afghanistan. We have learned that we must always weigh the costs of action, and communicate those costs candidly to the American people, which is why I’ve put Iraq and Afghanistan into my budget. We have learned that in the 21st century, we must use all elements of American power to achieve our objectives, which is why I am committed to building our civilian national security capacity so that the burden is not continually pushed on to our military. We have learned that our political leaders must pursue the broad and bipartisan support that our national security policies depend upon, which is why I will consult with Congress and in carrying out my plans. And we have learned the importance of working closely with friends and allies, which is why we are launching a new era of engagement in the world.

His eloquent summary of the lessons to be learnt from the war in Iraq. Well said ! Of course, President Obama’s intentions may sound candid and lofty but there are neocon elements in the government and the Republicans and maybe even the Democrats themselves who can derail his plans. The real enemies are in Washington and I really hope that President Obama can overcome the obstacles thrown in his way. But so far, finally a president who actually makes sense !

Back to being a terrorist

The Pentagon claims that 61 ex-Guntanamo inmates have returned to terrorism.

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said 18 former detainees are confirmed as “returning to the fight” and 43 are suspected of having done in a report issued late in December by the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Morrell declined to provide details such as the identity of the former detainees, why and where they were released or what actions they have taken since leaving U.S. custody.

“This is acts of terrorism. It could be Iraq, Afghanistan, it could be acts of terrorism around the world,” he told reporters.

Morrell said the latest figures, current through December 24, showed an 11 percent recidivism rate, up from 7 percent in a March 2008 report that counted 37 former detainees as suspected or confirmed active militants.

Then we have the human rights groups accusing the Pentagon of fear-mongering with this news. So should we or should we not imprison those suspected of terrorism ? Obviously this Pentagon article is issued in response to President Obama’s promise to close Guantanamo and the fear-mongerers there are all either covering their asses or waiting for an opportunity to bring this up as a “I told you so” when something bad happens in future. It’s pushing the cannon ball into Obama’s court and hoping that it’ll sink his ship. The political games have begun and Ayatollah Cheney/Bush’s gang are now plotting behind the scenes to grab power again. It’s potent stuff and if in future an ex-Guantanamo inmate is caught in a deadly terrorist act, that’s where the blame game starts. It is trying to emulate the Iran hostage taking fiasco that sank Jimmy Carter. Careful, President Obama. In fact in my humble opinion, Ayatollah Cheney/Bush and company are probably the bigger enemies of the state than the Guantanamo inmates. At least we all know where the inmates stand, either they don’t like or they hate America. But Ayatollah Bush/Cheney’s gang are agents within the system, masquerading as patriots, hoping to make America into a monster, all the time firmly believing in their ideology. (Doesn’t it also sound like the other side ?)

I think there is no question that conscience and decent American common sense tells us it’s wrong to hold someone in custody indefinitely without trial. This flies in the face of the constitution and threaten to turn back all the human rights and freedoms that have been won. But in our darkest fears, we would turn a blind eye to acts that will prevent terrorism, no matter how illegal or unconscionable they are. Look at Gaza today, how many Americans have stood up for the Palestinians ? I don’t hear anything, complete silence. This is because of our colored predisposition, we think of Palestinians as suicide bombers and terrorists first rather than as victims regardless of the fact that a majority of them aren’t. We couldn’t care less that more moderate Palestinians will be recruited to the terrorist cause because of the violence. It’s simple. Revenge is the most destructive force on earth. It is the energy feeding terrorism. So the tit-fot-tat will no doubt continue and again, it’ll come back like a cancer refusing to go away but well it’s ok you say, we’ll deal with it as it comes. But the cancer may become suddenly virulent and in moments when the vigilance is let down, it’ll sneak in, it’ll find a way. Americans may not mind now having to live with this necessary evil of having their rights and freedoms increasingly being curtailed. But one day, the security bubble can and will turn against the people it’s supposed to protect.

There is no security more effective than to erase the thought of destroying America from the enemies’ minds. The terrorist leaders must be deprived of an excuse to recruit. This is precisely the rationale for looking at Guantanamo and asking ourselves is it really effective in getting rid of the terrorism cancer or is it contributing to its spread instead. We cannot avoid addressing the main reasons and causes for terrorism, number one being the Palestinian problem. No amount of imprisonment and killing of terrorists or the capture of bin Laden is as effective as a solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. This is the wellspring and ground zero of the modern Islamist terrorist cancer. The cure lies here, not building more prisons.

A lose-lose scenario in Gaza

In this AFP post, Israel is toying with the fate of the world in its hands. Why so ? Simple logic. By Israel’s use of violence and killings as the action of choice to solve problems, they are teaching the Palestinians and the world how it should be done. The Palestinians and Arabs have been eager students of the Israeli way, that violence does in fact pay and violence will in fact work. Of course they have been less competent than Israel in the use of violence thus having to resort to more primitive means like terrorism ala suicide attacks. But they are learning and catching up. They are waiting for opportunities and openings to inflict ever more damage on the world to get its attention. The cycle will never stop. It’s now tit for tat. The world can try to contain them but like a cancer, it’s hard to prevent it from relapsing again. The problem must be nipped in the bud. The Palestinians must be shown a way forward that does not involve the use of violence for this situation to get better. There is no other choice. If they don’t see another way to address their grievances, they will keep coming back to haunt us. The hardliners who only want more destruction and a lose-lose outcome must be stopped on both sides. Israelis must not only discredit Hamas but also its own hardline leaders. They have to show that they can rise above the provocations of the Arab extremists and push for a just solution to the Palestinians otherwise they are just only playing more and more into the mullahs’ hands. The world needs a radical change of attitude towards this problem and there is little that President Obama can do but I’m hoping against hope that he will try something different.

Yet Another Armageddon Scenario

As we all know, the new year started with violence in the Middle East, well what else is new. The Israelis have again launched another so-called terrorist cleansing operation following their previous botched adventure in Lebanon. This time it is because of incessant rocket launches into Israeli territory and this time these rockets are more advanced, reaching deeper into Israel. The militant Palestinian group Hamas wants to kill Israelis and Israelis want to kill or weaken Hamas and the Palestinians. Deja-vu, nothing new here. And it’s precisely because of the fact that we are all already numbed by news coming out of this area that I don’t think we have come to acknowledge that this particular conflict have been the most devastating of the 21st century. It has been the mother of all 21st century terrorism. In some ways or another, terrorist acts committed so far have a line related back to this Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s given birth to Al-Qaeda and bin Laden, pushed America into an Afghanistan-Iraq quagmire, caused chaos in Spain, Mumbai and inspired the conservatives in Iran and other Middle-East nations to sponsor terrorism. It has been the chief excuse used for all the Western hate-mongering cooked up by the Middle-East Islamists, the rallying cry for Muslims.

Why has it come to this and why can’t this problem be solved ? Well here’s my version inspired by game theory. This hate and division have its roots all the way back into the 20th century when the Western powers led by Britain, annexed a piece of land to settle the misplaced Jews after World War II, giving birth to today’s Israel. But the Middle-Easterners then are not entirely happy with this arrangement. So in 1967, they launched a war against Israel which ended in failure and giving Israel control of Palestinian lands. So start this decades-old conflict with the Palestinians fighting for their land. With each passing decade, the conflict has hardened the resolve of both sides and deepen their suspicions of each other. Both sides have now come to a point of deadlock and continuous violence. It has come to a point where the hardline elements of both sides have increasingly gained the upper hand. Unfortunately, it has come to a point where the solution to this conflict is no longer in negotiations. The framework of negotiations has all but broken down long ago. Forget the United Nation resolutions, resolutions are empty without an incentive or disincentive to act. The other most influential actor in this is America. But America, being Israel’s chief ally, has lost credibility in its neutrality because it’s not willing to lean on Israel to give in. This has also turned America into the target of Palestinian anger. They don’t trust America anymore. There is now no credible neutral party that can influence these 2 parties to broker a peace and this situation in particular really needs a strong neutral power to force both sides to compromise. So Palestine, being the much weaker party in this dispute, have to take matters into their own hands. They can’t match the economic and military power of Israel and so they chose the terrorism as we see it today as the weapon to even out the imbalance. In all negotiations, it does not pay to be in a position of weakness because you will never get what you want. The Palestinians think by mutually destroying their opponents, they can force Israel to capitulate. But Israel have no incentive to concede and apparently by their own calculations, they believe they can contain the violence coming from Palestinians. In this deadlocked scenario, you can expect violence will only continue well into President Obama’s terms.

The endgame in this may be the gradual extinction of Palestinians given the current parity of power. That is what the hardliners in Israel is hoping for, the total annihilation of the Palestine thorn. But the problem is, the disease is starting to spread beyond Palestine. It has infected other regions like Pakistan and to a certain extent Central Asian, African countries and even Xinjiang of China because of the religion factor, Islam. 9/11 and Mumbai have shown that the disease is now spreading to where it can take root. America’s actions to date have always tried to contain these problems rather than nip it in the bud because there is simply no political will to do otherwise. The Jewish influence on American government is simply too strong. America’s public strategy so far is mainly to militarily take out terrorists where they are found, not in preventing their existence in the first place. It’s like curing the symptoms but not solving the root cause, just like America’s broken health care system. So terrorist groups, fuelled and united by hate and anger towards America and Israel, are now spreading worldwide, actively seeking to exploit simmering local distrust and sow discord between peoples and countries. They are constantly working to find ways and tools to further chaos and probably force a world war which they hope will re-arrange the current status quo. Given these conditions, it is no wonder that there is an assessment by the Commission On The Prevention of WMD and Terrorim that more deadly terrorist attacks are very likely in the next few years. The real danger here is mainly the terrorists’ belief and reliance on mutual destruction and violence to push their cause instead of negotiations as the platform of choice to address issues. During the cold war, America and the old Soviet Union are also deadlocked in a mutual destruction scenario. But the armageddon scenario did not happen because the risks are simply too great for either side and both have parity in firepower. But for 21st century terrorists, they have nothing to lose as they are the David and they are hoping to exploit the chaos they have caused to Goliath.

The credibility of peaceful negotiations and non-violent approaches must be reinstated before we can see progress. The hardliners in both Palestine and Israel must be discredited and sidelined giving way to moderates and centrists. There is only 1 solution to the Palestine problem : An honest and neutral America who will arm-twist both sides to compromise for peace. Barring that, no amount of “peace talks”, diplomacy, rockets or tanks will work. Doing so will eliminate the chief excuse and rallying cry for Islamist terrorists. America and the world have a huge incentive to do so, prevent armageddon.

Letter to Paul Broun

Paul,

Let’s say the reverse happened. Let’s say the liberal or the “left” mount an attack on George Bush and company on the Iraq war, calling him Hitler and accusing him of manslaughter of tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians and committing thousands of Americans to sacrifice themselves in the name of some whimsical high brow ideology. It does sound a lot like Hitler, ain’t it ? Then what about the infringements of civil liberties and the constitution by allowing unsupervised wiretapping. What about the use of torture then ? You’ll say it’s a necessary thing to protect America but in reality, it goes against every string of moral fiber weaved into the constitution by wiser men long ago. Then what about the lies perpetrated for Iraq war and the total incompetence displayed in the conduct of the war. Now we have a bloody global economic crisis in part because your president does not have the time or the resource to deal with these problems before they explode because of his Iraq hobby. Of course, you’ll say it seems convenient to lump all problems on your beloved president but hey, take a deep breath and look around, it really all adds up to where we are today. Let’s not kid ourselves that your brand of conservatism have turned the clock back on America just like the Islamic mullahs in the MidEast hopes to go back to their good old glorious days. Yes, I’m saying that this kind of conservatism is no different from the Islamic kind, using tactics like provoking misunderstandings, bigotry and hate to keep your own herd together. But I do agree with you on the free speech part. So let the game begin and let’s spread more lies and hate about fascist Bush & you & your Republican party !

My angry 2 cents.

Letter to Bush

There’s been lots of calls to submit questions for President-elect Obama but I think we should also write to bid farewell to the outgoing president :

Dear President Bush,

Thank you for your hard work and sacrifice leading America for the last 8 years. We all know it has not been an easy task for you and you have indeed weathered a lot of storms starting with the momentous 9/11 event. I think that is probably the watershed event that defines your entire presidency.

For the next few months following 9/11, you have shown strength and resolve and have provided strong support for the fearful population to find comfort in. You have led us out of an abyss of fear, confusion, sorrow and pain. Things are starting to improve and the world has rallied around us. We have a historic window of opportunity and global mandate at that time to start healing a divide that has given birth to the scourge of terrorism. But unfortunately, you didn’t take advantage of it. It started with the occupation of Afghanistan together with support from America’s allies. That initial success took out the Taleban and sent them fleeing. Then comes the critical rebuilding of a broken nation kicked around like a football by decades of big power contests. As in all wars, sending the army in is the easy part, but securing it is the key and much, much more difficult. But things are starting to plod along slowly for Afghanistan.

Then comes I think undeniably the biggest blunder of your presidency of which 7 years later will decide how you will be judged against. You decided to believe in the misguided ideology of the New American World Order envisioned by the neocons. They thought that with the previous Gulf War success and America’s superpower military might coupled with the largest economy, they can sustain and broaden the fight against the terrorists. Unfortunately, it is a flawed ideology centered wholly on the self-interests of America ignoring the complexities of the world. You found an excuse for invading Iraqi by labeling it an imminent threat and then marketing it as spreading democracy and liberty for the Iraqis. History has shown us that any ideology when carried to extremes is always dangerous. Like they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. It is even more so if the practitioners of the ideology blindly resolve to embrace it as core principles and use it to justify their actions. This is the cause for the rise of communism, fascism and now terrorism. Terrorists also firmly believe that they are fighting for a just cause and they probably also feel no guilt about it. This is what makes them even more dangerous than common criminals who are driven by mainly by greed. If you were to look into a mirror, sir, you will find very little difference between the extremes of the neocon ideology and terrorism. Both are fueled by the same misguided and misplaced emotions of patriotism, extreme religious fervor and unquestioned loyalty to their cause. There can be no compromise, no middle ground. Middle grounds are derided as weak and vacillating. It’s either win all or be annihilated. Both does not see the use of force and violence as instruments of the very last resort but as an everyday tool that can be whipped out and used as and when required. Both thrives on ignorance and negative emotions and depends on spreading misinformation and stoking bigoted, prejudicial, hateful emotions to keep their herd in order. I hate to say this but really there are more similarities between your administration and the terrorists than you’ll like to admit. But of course, you don’t go around intentionally killing civilians and destroying lives. But having your finger on the trigger of the world’s most powerful and destructive army will have a huge, devastating effect as you already know with tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians dead because of the war. This is the humongous human price tag for the Iraqi war but, till now, I don’t believe you have grasp the gravity of it from your fist pumping photo-op landing on the aircraft carrier to repeated self-delusional denials.

Why I say that the 9/11 event is the watershed because it sets in motion so many seemingly knee-jerk decisions by your administration that undermines the constitution and the moral leadership of America. It also distracts you from solving all other highly pressing issues some of which have been on the back-burner for decades. The Iraq war has not only drained the administration’s resources but also the piggy bank. There is simply not much leverage left in responding to economic downturns because of the burdens of the war. All the pronunciations of “The economy is strong” is complete rubbish. The downturn of 2001 have already demonstrated the need for prudence. Unfortunately, because of the need to finance the war and make sure the economy chugs along, you chose to spend beyond our means and keep encouraging Americans to do so to keep the machine running. You have chosen to turn a blind eye to the obviously overheating real estate market, which is pretty obvious by the way according to some economists with enough common sense, letting it run its natural course to the ground. Big problems like health care are neglected. Energy independence is given lip service. Responses to natural disasters like Katrina are botched because of unpreparedness and lack of resources. Yes, of course I know, because there is simply no resource left to address these issues. All because of 9/11. From that fateful day, one string of bad judgements feed on the next and it becomes a domino-effect, finally knocking down all blocks. All culminating now in the string of events now unfolding just before you leave. The machine is starting to crack under pressure and now that broken machine will now be shoved to the next president to repair and overhaul. It feels to me just too convenient and irresponsible.

On hindsight, what we need the last 7 years is actually cool, level headedness and a realistic and pragmatic approach free from ideology or religion. This is even more so because an event like 9/11 which will ignite a firestorm of latent emotions and dormant prejudices needs rationality more than anything else. Cries for revenge and retribution must be calmly put down. This is not countries going to war in the conventional sense but a small group of diehards in the Islamic world who are sick of Western hypocrisy and chose the path of violence to make a point. It has nothing to do with the Islamic world and your administration should have taken pains to address this misconception instead of fanning it for your own objectives. You have also basically overreach yourselves and over estimated America’s resources and under estimated the effort required to help Iraq to stand on their own. There is also fear and mistrust of letting Iraqis be masters of their own fate because they might become another bastion of anti-America sentiment. This causes the US to be perceived as hypocritical and they will become cynical as to America’s real intentions like control of oil supplies and permanent military bases against Iran, Syria, etc. All these problems cannot be addressed simply in a knee-jerk fashion, it needs a higher strategic perspective married with moral ideals. It is a larger war of winning the hearts and minds, more than just a simple matter of killing all the terrorists and setting up military bases. Even if bin Laden is killed, the war is not yet won. The real battleground lies within the minds of the people of America and the Islamic world, not in the battlegrounds of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. The war can only be won when Muslims one day don’t see America any more as hypocritical overbearing imperialists but as neighbours whom they would like to have or, at the very least, can tolerate next door.

Mr President, as a human being I don’t think you are bad and we all know you are generally a nice guy but I do think you and your team are the most unqualified and extremely incompetent for possibly the most important job on this planet. I sincerely hope that President-elect Obama can reverse and heal the damage and redeem your mistakes for all our sakes. I wish you all the best in your future endeavors.

Best regards,

Chern Lai

Quiet hero Toot

My condolences to Senator Barack Obama for your loss.

The Economist endorses Obama

A sober and balanced endorsement by a magazine for Obama. The Economist has been pretty critical of Obama but it has turned around and endorsed him instead after weighing all the factors. It says that if McCain had been running based on his usual self instead of pandering to the Republican far right, it would have been a very different story. Obama is still untested and that would already have been enough to nail his presidency hopes. But

There is no getting around the fact that Mr Obama’s résumé is thin for the world’s biggest job. But the exceptionally assured way in which he has run his campaign is a considerable comfort. It is not just that he has more than held his own against Mr McCain in the debates. A man who started with no money and few supporters has out-thought, out-organised and out-fought the two mightiest machines in American politics—the Clintons and the conservative right.

This feat alone shows he is far more competent than so-called old hands in politics. In a way, I think being experienced in Washington’s ways is a baggage in this election because of how Obama has defined the battle. Obama refused to let his campaign be defined by those of the past which is based largely on character assassination, mud-slinging and pandering to the electorate. Instead, he chose to run a very different campaign strategy and it takes a lot of courage to do that. He stood his ground staking his campaign on his message around ordinary Americans and their aspirations, their frustrations. He skilfully deflects all the smears and barbs thrown at him by chiding them of resorting to low-handed tactics instead of trying to address the fundamental problems faced by the country. It is simply brilliant the way he and his team has conducted his campaign which has moved even the skeptical Economist’s editors him to throw in their support .

As the election looms near, here’s some Matrix nostalgia :

Agent Smith: You hear that Mr. Anderson?… That is the sound of inevitability… It is the sound of your death… Goodbye, Mr. Anderson…
Neo: My name… is Barack Hussein Obama.

Yes, the sound has changed since 2 years ago and we all know which way the sound is going now, the only question is how loud will it be.

Above the fray

Ken Adelman, who claimed to be a staunch conservative, tells about his reasons why he’s endorsing Obama :

McCain’s temperament — leading him to bizarre behavior during the week the economic crisis broke — and his judgment — leading him to Wasilla — depressed me into thinking that “our guy” would be a(nother) lousy conservative president. Been there, done that.

I’d rather a competent moderate president. Even at a risk, since Obama lacks lots of executive experience displaying competence (though his presidential campaign has been spot-on). And since his Senate voting record is not moderate, but depressingly liberal. Looming in the background, Pelosi and Reid really scare me.

Nonetheless, I concluded that McCain would not — could not — be a good president. Obama just might be.

That’s become good enough for me — however much of a triumph (as Dr. Johnson said about second marriages) of hope over experience.

Essentially it is “I would rather have a competent, leftlist, liberal president than a lousy rightist, conservative president”. Well said. Decency and competency should triumph over ideology, race, religion anytime. Here lies the real strength of Obama’s campaign and how McCain is sorely missing the point. He has constantly put himself above the useless bickering over ideology and instead focus his campaign on the message of unity and problem solving. He has shrewdly elevated himself above the fray and become untouchable while our image of McCain is that he’s still stuck in the bottom doing mudslinging. I think Obama has shown how presidential campaigns can be run and won that’s not based on negativity which has caused much cynicism in the political process. But I’m not sure that there’s gonna be another Obama who will have the character, steadfastness, confidence and stature to pull another campaign like this in future. It remains to be seen. Here’s another good article describing Obama’s superb campaign strategy, the non-campaigning passive campaign.

Polls versus putting money where the mouth is

Came across this interesting site, InTrade Prediction Market. It currently predicts Obama will win 375 electoral votes versus 163 for McCain. If you don’t trust the election polls, this is one alternative. In my opinion, it reflects a better picture of the election because of the following assumptions :

• It is based more on informed decision-making and minimizes the biases in some polls. But bear in mind that traders will still base their decisions on what they get in the news and the media being skewed in this election does affect the market results.
• Of course, putting the money where your mouth is, traders want to bet on the right outcome because they don’t want to lose money.
• Aggregation power of informed traders. They represent the aggregated perceptions and information available at the current moment.