Yet Another Armageddon Scenario

As we all know, the new year started with violence in the Middle East, well what else is new. The Israelis have again launched another so-called terrorist cleansing operation following their previous botched adventure in Lebanon. This time it is because of incessant rocket launches into Israeli territory and this time these rockets are more advanced, reaching deeper into Israel. The militant Palestinian group Hamas wants to kill Israelis and Israelis want to kill or weaken Hamas and the Palestinians. Deja-vu, nothing new here. And it’s precisely because of the fact that we are all already numbed by news coming out of this area that I don’t think we have come to acknowledge that this particular conflict have been the most devastating of the 21st century. It has been the mother of all 21st century terrorism. In some ways or another, terrorist acts committed so far have a line related back to this Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s given birth to Al-Qaeda and bin Laden, pushed America into an Afghanistan-Iraq quagmire, caused chaos in Spain, Mumbai and inspired the conservatives in Iran and other Middle-East nations to sponsor terrorism. It has been the chief excuse used for all the Western hate-mongering cooked up by the Middle-East Islamists, the rallying cry for Muslims.

Why has it come to this and why can’t this problem be solved ? Well here’s my version inspired by game theory. This hate and division have its roots all the way back into the 20th century when the Western powers led by Britain, annexed a piece of land to settle the misplaced Jews after World War II, giving birth to today’s Israel. But the Middle-Easterners then are not entirely happy with this arrangement. So in 1967, they launched a war against Israel which ended in failure and giving Israel control of Palestinian lands. So start this decades-old conflict with the Palestinians fighting for their land. With each passing decade, the conflict has hardened the resolve of both sides and deepen their suspicions of each other. Both sides have now come to a point of deadlock and continuous violence. It has come to a point where the hardline elements of both sides have increasingly gained the upper hand. Unfortunately, it has come to a point where the solution to this conflict is no longer in negotiations. The framework of negotiations has all but broken down long ago. Forget the United Nation resolutions, resolutions are empty without an incentive or disincentive to act. The other most influential actor in this is America. But America, being Israel’s chief ally, has lost credibility in its neutrality because it’s not willing to lean on Israel to give in. This has also turned America into the target of Palestinian anger. They don’t trust America anymore. There is now no credible neutral party that can influence these 2 parties to broker a peace and this situation in particular really needs a strong neutral power to force both sides to compromise. So Palestine, being the much weaker party in this dispute, have to take matters into their own hands. They can’t match the economic and military power of Israel and so they chose the terrorism as we see it today as the weapon to even out the imbalance. In all negotiations, it does not pay to be in a position of weakness because you will never get what you want. The Palestinians think by mutually destroying their opponents, they can force Israel to capitulate. But Israel have no incentive to concede and apparently by their own calculations, they believe they can contain the violence coming from Palestinians. In this deadlocked scenario, you can expect violence will only continue well into President Obama’s terms.

The endgame in this may be the gradual extinction of Palestinians given the current parity of power. That is what the hardliners in Israel is hoping for, the total annihilation of the Palestine thorn. But the problem is, the disease is starting to spread beyond Palestine. It has infected other regions like Pakistan and to a certain extent Central Asian, African countries and even Xinjiang of China because of the religion factor, Islam. 9/11 and Mumbai have shown that the disease is now spreading to where it can take root. America’s actions to date have always tried to contain these problems rather than nip it in the bud because there is simply no political will to do otherwise. The Jewish influence on American government is simply too strong. America’s public strategy so far is mainly to militarily take out terrorists where they are found, not in preventing their existence in the first place. It’s like curing the symptoms but not solving the root cause, just like America’s broken health care system. So terrorist groups, fuelled and united by hate and anger towards America and Israel, are now spreading worldwide, actively seeking to exploit simmering local distrust and sow discord between peoples and countries. They are constantly working to find ways and tools to further chaos and probably force a world war which they hope will re-arrange the current status quo. Given these conditions, it is no wonder that there is an assessment by the Commission On The Prevention of WMD and Terrorim that more deadly terrorist attacks are very likely in the next few years. The real danger here is mainly the terrorists’ belief and reliance on mutual destruction and violence to push their cause instead of negotiations as the platform of choice to address issues. During the cold war, America and the old Soviet Union are also deadlocked in a mutual destruction scenario. But the armageddon scenario did not happen because the risks are simply too great for either side and both have parity in firepower. But for 21st century terrorists, they have nothing to lose as they are the David and they are hoping to exploit the chaos they have caused to Goliath.

The credibility of peaceful negotiations and non-violent approaches must be reinstated before we can see progress. The hardliners in both Palestine and Israel must be discredited and sidelined giving way to moderates and centrists. There is only 1 solution to the Palestine problem : An honest and neutral America who will arm-twist both sides to compromise for peace. Barring that, no amount of “peace talks”, diplomacy, rockets or tanks will work. Doing so will eliminate the chief excuse and rallying cry for Islamist terrorists. America and the world have a huge incentive to do so, prevent armageddon.